Poker Variance
- Poker Variance Meaning
- Poker Variance Simulator
- Poker Variance Calculator Alex Torres
- Poker Variance Texas Holdem
Variance is a term commonly thrown around in poker. While poker is luck based in the short term it is nearly all skill in the long run. The correct play will frequently have a worse result than the incorrect play; good players will frequently lose to bad players. Variance is the downswings and upswings involved with playing poker. It’s quite possibly the least technical definition for a term I have ever written, but the “ups and downs” of poker when it comes to winning and losing money sums it up rather well. Before we get into the details, let’s define what we actually mean by variance in poker terms. Without getting too sciency, we can say that variance measures how much data points are spread from the average. In plain English, it means that how much you expect to earn and how much you actually earn will differ over a small sample.
Sit and gos are notorious for their variance. The variance itself isn’t always the real problem, though, as the frustration can send any player over the edge. Sit and go players, depending on their particular limits and games, are accustomed to swings that can range from 5-20 buy ins on a very regular basis.
There are a lot of swings in cash games, but they don’t even compare to what a lot of sit and go players have to deal with. Heads up sit and go players have the most variance, as is to be expected. Trailing heads up sit and gos in variance are the short handed and full ring games. Full ring sit and gos have significantly less variance than short handed games, and short handed games make heads up games seem like the worst experience in the world.
Interestingly enough, the games with the most variance are also the ones that will generally yield the highest returns. One of the lessons to learn with sit and gos is that the more risk you take, the more reward you should expect, if you are successful. The flaw in this approach is that you will inevitably fail a fair amount of the time if you play the games with wild variance. Play what you are comfortable with, and always be ready for the inevitable bad days.
Proper bankroll management is of the utmost important for SNG players. There are a lot of casual players who enjoy playing sit and gos from time to time, but these are not the people who need to worry about their bankrolls. As a serious player who wants to win, you should be paying extremely close attention to your bankroll at all times.
In addition to monitoring your poker sit and go bankroll, you should also have the self-discipline to either move down in limits or take a break from sit and gos if things aren’t going well. This is a concept that is lost on a large number of SNG players. It is easy to start with a sound bankroll, it is easy to move up in limits when things are going well, but it takes a real effort to rework your game when you run into a few obstacles.
Realistic Variance in Sit and Gos
While your limits, skill level, and type of game can alter what variance would be considered normal, there are a few general guidelines for downswings in sit and gos. If you are going way over these numbers, you should at least consider changing something up. Normal variance is something that is completely unpreventable and it happens to every single player in the world, but abnormal variance is an unnecessary hurdle that can be improved upon.
Heads up sit and gos are the most brutal when it comes to variance. You might think that heads up players would be able to win with greater consistency because they are in a one on one environment, and while that is true in the long run, all that it takes for a big downswing in heads up games is a few lost coin flips.
Poker Variance Meaning
You could have any number of opponents dead in the water, but you could also lose 10 coin flips in a row. Sometimes nothing will go your way - every poker player has been there, but the problems and losses are multiplied in a heads up environment. Small stakes heads up players can easily lose 10-20 buy ins, while mid stakes and high stakes players can lose double this. A solid player won’t have too many stretches of sizable losses, but no one is immune to a big swing in heads up sit and go tournaments.
Short handed sit and go players fall right in between the variance found in heads up and full ring games, as any logical player would suspect. The jump in variance is more dramatic when compared to heads up games than full ring games.
If you are a full ring player, expect a slight bump in how streaky your wins and losses are in short handed games, but don’t look for extremely dramatic differences. Five-ten buy in swings are quite normal in these games, with 10+ buy in downswings not being something worth crying about. Once you hit a 20 buy in downswing, however, it is probably time to reassess your skills.
Full ring sit and gos are the safest route for any player who is worried about losing buy ins. If you prefer to win your money in smaller, more consistent amounts, full ring SNGs are the game for you. The trade off is that full ring players make a lower ROI. You can't pound out the volume in full ring games that you can in heads up or short handed games. For most players in full ring SNGs, downswings rarely extend past 10 buy ins. Would a downswing of over 10 buy ins be a reason for panic? Definitely not, but you shouldn’t find that they happen all that often.
Today's topic is the biggest nightmare of poker players all over the world — variance.
Variance refers to the upswings and downswings of your bankroll. Variance doesn't necessarily measure how good of a poker player you are, but rather measures how high and low those swings are, which can be caused by a number of different factors.
Pot-limit Omaha is a game that involves a lot of variance. Regardless how good you play, the variance of the game means most PLO players will face the prospect of losing 50-100 stacks during their career — and more than once.
The good news is that if you do the right things and put in a sufficient amount of volume, you can still reach your expected profit and overcome the variance of the game, making it 'no longer exist' or at least no longer have such a dramatic effect on your bottom line.
First of all, the best way possible to endure those periods of downswings in PLO is to make certain you are playing according to the principles of sound bankroll management. No one who is on the verge of going broke is going to play their most optimal game or consistently make smart decisions.
Make sure your poker bankroll is sufficient to play the stakes you are playing. Also, remember that the bankroll you use for poker should be separate from the savings you use for other non-poker 'life costs.'
Another essential factor to help you deal with variance in PLO is having a good mindset and being mentally prepared for those swings, both the good ones and the bad ones.
I've seen players get extremely defeated and pessimistic during their unlucky periods, so much so that it affects their games and causes the downswings to continue longer than they might otherwise.
You must keep in mind that the best hand does not always win, and that the best play does not always work. That's always going to be true in specific, individual hands. However over the longer term, the entirety of your (good) decisions will pay off and you will be a winning player.
The best thing you can do is keep working on your game and keep grinding at your chosen stakes or even lower until you recover your confidence and reestablish a safe bankroll. Do not give into the temptation to play higher limits in an effort to recover what you lost during a period of one or few sessions — this is just not how things work.
Running bad can last hundreds of thousands hands. So can running good, which means also always keeping in mind that a winning period shouldn't be taken for granted.
Poker Variance Simulator
Poker is a logical and mathematical game, and for that reason it is a game in which the best, most skillful players will make the most money over the long term.
Poker Variance Calculator Alex Torres
Don't lose your focus or your patience during a period when you seem to be on the 'wrong side' of variance. The way players are able to deal with the swings of the game and handle the game's variance is one of the biggest differences between ordinary players (who struggle with variance) and great players (who manage it well). Keep it going and aim for the top.
Primarily an online player, 888poker Ambassador Vivian 'Vivi' Saliba has recently collected numerous live cashes including making the money in both the 2017 WSOP Main Event and 2017 WSOP Europe Main Event. Pot-limit Omaha is her favorite variant, and among her many PLO scores is an 11th place in the $10,000 Pot-Limit Omaha 8-Handed Championship at the 2017 WSOP.
Poker Variance Texas Holdem
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