Nba Free Agency Vegas Odds

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Where are Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson heading in NBA free agency? Will the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets or LA Clippers be able to land two max stars?

Nov 24, 2020 With NBA free agency nearing a close and most rosters set, the Westgate Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Knicks and Nets at opposite ends of the spectrum. In the over/under for wins, the Knicks, who.

  1. To say the NBA's balance of power shifted Sunday might be an understatement. 'Imploded' might be a better word to describe what happened to the NBA landscape just hours into free agency, which brought on a cascade of franchise-altering moves - Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to the Brooklyn Nets, Kemba Walker to the Boston Celtics and Al Horford to the Philadelphia 76ers, to name a few.
  2. With NBA free agency nearing a close and most rosters set, the Westgate Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Knicks and Nets at opposite ends of the spectrum. In the over/under for wins, the Knicks, who.

The signings can officially begin at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, and so far there's little certainty about how this potentially league-altering offseason will shake out.

Our ESPN Forecast panel predicts the destinations for the top players and which franchise will be the title favorite when the summer is over.

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More: Latest NBA free-agency buzz

On which team's roster will Kevin Durant be next season?

Durant is likely to miss most or all of next season after suffering a ruptured right Achilles in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, making his offseason move even more unpredictable.

In the February edition of these predictions, the Knicks were clear favorites. Now it's a toss-up, with the Golden State Warriors having a slight edge.

MORE: Warriors to talk future with KD, Klay this week

On which team's roster will Klay Thompson be next season?

Like Durant, Thompson is expected to miss a large chunk of 2019-20 after tearing the ACL in his left knee during the NBA Finals. Both players are still projected to command max offers in free agency despite the injuries, and our panel is unanimous in predicting Thompson will return to Golden State.

MORE: Ten free-agency and trade targets for Warriors

Where will Kawhi Leonard play next season?

The NBA Finals MVP is tough to read, but our panel now predicts a Toronto Raptors return as most likely. In February, the Clippers got 66.7% of the vote.

Wherever he ends up, pay attention to the number of years on Leonard's next contract. A two-year deal (maybe with a player option) would let him hit the market again with 10 years of service, and he then would be able to earn significantly more long-term money.

MORE:Which NBA teams can chase superstar free agents?

Where will Kyrie Irving play next season?

The Boston Celtics have gone from favorites to keep Irving in February to out of the running in these predictions following a disappointing season.

Now Brooklyn is the front-runner for the All-Star point guard.

MORE: 'Busy week' ahead for Ainge, recalibrating Celtics

Where will Kemba Walker play next season?

Update (June 27): After these predictions were made, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the the Celtics have emerged as the frontrunner to sign Walker once free agency opens on Sunday.

Walker has said that the Charlotte Hornets are his first priority in free agency and he would consider taking less money if it helped build out the rest of the roster.

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Walker will receive interest from plenty of other teams with point guard needs, though no clear favorite has emerged to recruit him away from Charlotte.

MORE: Biggest NBA free-agency and trade decisions for all 30 teams

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Where will Al Horford play next season?

Horford is expected to leave Boston after talks on a long-term deal fell apart, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

The Dallas Mavericks are the favorites here, with Horford joining the dynamic core of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis (if he returns in restricted free agency).

Others receiving votes: Brooklyn Nets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz

MORE: How the NBA draft sets up a league-altering free agency

Will the 76ers re-sign their big midseason additions?

In February, keeping Tobias Harris but losing Jimmy Butler was the top choice at 63.9%. Since then, Butler's clutch showing in the postseason has made him look crucial to the Philadelphia 76ers' offense.

The Houston Rockets will make a run at recruiting Butler for a sign-and-trade, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, though even if Butler is interested the cap mechanics there are complex.

MORE: The latest intel on this loaded free-agent market

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Who is the next best free-agent target?

Khris Middleton and D'Angelo Russell get the nod here.

Middleton was essential to the Milwaukee Bucks' earning the league's best regular-season record, and the Bucks won't have many ways to replace him if he walks. Russell enters restricted free agency, but Brooklyn will need to renounce his rights to add two max players.

Others receiving votes: Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic

MORE: 2019 NBA free-agent rankings: Top 30 players and potential fits

How many max-contract players will the Knicks add in the offseason?

The Knicks cleared room for two stars in the Porzingis trade, with Durant pegged as the favorite to take at least one of those max slots prior to his injury. Now the Knicks appear to be total wild cards.

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If New York can't land the top free agents, all indications are that the team will pursue short-term deals, according to a report by ESPN's Zach Lowe.

MORE: The NBA draft's best, riskiest and most surprising moves

How many max-contract players will the Nets add in the offseason?

The Nets have telegraphed their intention to pair Irving with a second superstar, and Durant has been widely assumed to be that star, according to Lowe's report.

Our panel predicts Brooklyn gets at least one star -- and maybe two.

MORE: Kyrie or D'Angelo? How Brooklyn might handle a difficult decision

How many max-contract players will the Clippers add in the offseason?

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The Raptors winning the title -- seemingly increasing their odds to keep Leonard in Toronto -- likely shifted these L.A. predictions.

The Clippers were projected in February to have an 86.1% chance to land at least one star, but that's down to 66.7% now. Still, those are strong odds at improvement for a team that took a healthy Warriors squad to six games in the playoffs.

MORE: How the Clippers can make their anti-pitch to Kawhi Leonard

Which team will be the 2019-20 NBA title favorite when the season begins?

With Kawhi expected to return, the Raptors take this one. Their Eastern Conference finals foes from Milwaukee are a close second.

MORE: NBA free agents: Team-by-team lists for 2019 and 2020

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This summer, we saw LeBron James leave for the Lakers, Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan trade places, and DeMarcus Cousins join the champion Warriors.

Next summer? We could see even more NBA stars on the move.

Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler and Leonard headline a star-studded 2019 free-agent class that can hit the market when more teams will have cap space.

Where could they land next summer?

We asked our ESPN Forecast panel to predict where the top five free agents will start the 2019-20 season.

Here are the results:

Where will Kyrie Irving start the 2019-20 season?

Reports swirled earlier this summer that Irving was aiming to team up with Butler, potentially in New York, where the Knicks should have the space to add a max player. (Adding two would take some creativity with the current roster.)

Irving grew up in West Orange, New Jersey, and might leap at the opportunity to play in front of home area fans. However, our panel also gave the Celtics a very good chance of retaining Irving -- a chance that could improve if Irving and the Celtics take advantage of the LeBron-less East and reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010. -- Adam Reisinger

Where will Jimmy Butler start the 2019-20 season?

As with Irving, our panel sees New York as Butler's most likely destination, though it's difficult to see at this moment how the Knicks would create the cap space for both of them (not to mention the chance Durant chooses New York too). Perhaps most telling about these results though is the fact that 10 possible Butler destinations were listed, in addition to his current team.

Butler was also the only player in our Forecast for whom his current team didn't finish first or second in the voting, with only 12 percent of panelists seeing Minnesota as his long-term home. Expect the four-time All-Star to have a new team next summer. -- Reisinger

Where will Kawhi Leonard start the 2019-20 season?

The Lakers weren't able to swing a trade for the former Finals MVP this summer, but the majority of our panel still thinks Leonard will be wearing purple and gold in 2019-20.

Leonard has reportedly stated his preference for playing in Los Angeles, making James' new squad the front-runners for when Leonard becomes a free agent next summer. Their Staples Center neighbors, the Clippers, also received votes, finishing just behind Toronto, the team that was able to eventually pry Leonard out of San Antonio.

Because of the Lakers' use of one-year contracts this offseason, they will almost certainly have the cap space necessary to lure Leonard back over the border in 2019. -- Reisinger

Where will Kevin Durant start the 2019-20 season?

The two-time reigning Finals MVP has already taken a pair of discounted deals with the Warriors, so the biggest question regarding his free agency next summer might not be where he'll sign, but for how much he'll sign. The majority of our panel sees him staying with the Warriors, with the bright spotlight of Madison Square Garden as a potential lure.

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Two low-percentage options are the most intriguing. KD back to OKC? There's almost no way to make that work under the cap -- not to mention the years of hurt feelings that would have to be set aside -- but it'd be amazing to see. KD to LA to team up with LeBron? That'd be a seismic NBA shift. -- Reisinger

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Where will Klay Thompson start the 2019-20 season?

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The Warriors' sharpshooter just re-upped with Chinese sneaker brand Anta, providing him with the kind of supplementary income that might not force him to chase a max contract in 2019 -- or Golden State could decide that Thompson is worth keeping around at the max, regardless of luxury tax concerns. Plus, Thompson will be supermax eligible next summer if he earns another All-NBA nod.

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Either way, our panel sees Thompson staying in the Bay Area as the Warriors move into their new arena in San Francisco next season. But keep an eye on Los Angeles, where Thompson's father, Mychal, won a pair of titles with the Lakers in the 1980s and where Klay was born and raised. -- Reisinger